By Larry M. Bartels – Tue Oct 21, 4:00 am
from Christian Science Monitor:
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Princeton, N.J. – John McCain is a maverick and Barack Obama is a postpartisan problem-solver. But you wouldn't know it by looking at their economic plans. Both candidates' proposals faithfully reflect the traditional economic priorities of their respective parties. That makes the track records of past Democratic and Republican administrations a very useful benchmark for assessing how the economy might perform under a President McCain or a President Obama. The bottom line: During the past 60 years, Democrats have presided over much less unemployment and much more robust income growth.
The $52.5 billion plan Senator McCain announced last week includes $36 billion in tax breaks for senior citizens withdrawing funds from retirement accounts and $10 billion for a reduction in the capital gains tax. Those are perks for investors, most of whom are relatively affluent. (McCain is also proposing a two-year suspension of taxes on unemployment benefits, but that's a fraction of the plan's cost.) He also favors broader tax cuts for businesses and wants to extend President Bush's massive tax cuts indefinitely, even for people earning more than $250,000 per year.
McCain's proposals reflect the traditional Republican emphasis on cutting taxes for businesses and wealthy people in hopes of stimulating investment – "trickle down" economics, as it came to be called during Ronald Reagan's administration. But will proposals of this sort really "stop and reverse the rise of unemployment" and "create millions of new jobs" as McCain has claimed? The historical record suggests not.
President Bush's multitrillion-dollar tax cuts, which were strongly tilted toward the rich, could not prevent (and may even have contributed to) significant job losses. On the other hand, when Bill Clinton raised taxes on affluent people to balance the federal budget (while significantly expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit for working poor people), unemployment declined substantially. Under Clinton's watch, 22 million jobs were created.
Prefer a broader historical comparison? In the past three decades, since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries oil price shocks of the mid-1970s and the Republican turn toward "supply side" economics, the average unemployment rate under Republican presidents has been 6.7 percent – substantially higher than the 5.5 percent average under Democratic presidents. (The official unemployment rate takes no account of people who have given up looking for work or taken substantial pay cuts to stay in the labor force.) Over an even broader time period, since the late 1940s, unemployment has averaged 4.8 percent under Democratic presidents but 6.3 percent – almost one-third higher – under Republican presidents.
Lower unemployment under Democratic presidents has contributed substantially to the real incomes of middle-class and working poor families. Job losses hurt everyone – not just those without work. In fact, every percentage point of unemployment has the effect of reducing middle-class income growth by about $300 per family per year. And the effects are long term, unlike the temporary boost in income from a stimulus check. Compounded over an eight-year period, a persistent one-point difference in unemployment is worth about $10,000 to a middle-class family. The dollar values are smaller for working poor families, but in relative terms their incomes are even more sensitive to unemployment. In contrast, income growth for affluent people is much more sensitive to inflation, which has been a perennial target of Republican economic policies.
Although McCain portrays Senator Obama as a "job killing" tax-and-spend liberal, the new $60 billion plan Obama unveiled last week also has a tax break as its centerpiece – a tax break specifically tailored to create jobs by offering employers a $3,000 tax credit for each new hire over the next two years. Obama's proposal would also extend unemployment benefits by 13 weeks for those who remain jobless, as well as match McCain's in suspending taxes on unemployment benefits.
Obama's new proposal complements $115 billion in economic stimulus measures he had already announced, including $65 billion in direct rebates to taxpayers and $50 billion to help states jump-start spending on infrastructure projects. All of this is squarely in the tradition of Democratic presidents since John F. Kennedy, who have relied on public spending and tax breaks for working people to stimulate consumption and employment during economic downturns.
These and other policies have produced not only lower unemployment under Democratic presidents but also more economic output and income growth. In fact, over the past 60 years, the real incomes of middle-income families have grown about twice as fast under Democratic presidents as they have under Republican presidents. The partisan difference is even greater for working poor families, whose real incomes have grown six times as fast under Democratic presidents as they have under Republican presidents.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of what will happen when the next president takes office. However, given the striking fidelity of both presidential candidates to their parties' traditional economic priorities, the profound impact of partisan politics on the economic fortunes of American families over more than half a century ought to weigh heavily in the minds of voters.
• Larry M. Bartels directs the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics in Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs. He is the author of "Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Gilded Age."
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
"How Can We Trust Either of You..."
I went to watch the debate with a group called, The Stonewall Democrats, with a friend I made at Outmusic Open mike. It was at a bar and wasn't the best place because of the noise. People probably talked more during McCain's talking and paid better attention while Barack was talking.
What got me about that, and I mentioned it to my friend, is that McCain is still in this race; he may be our next President. If we don't know what he is planning to do, then we can't make an informed decision on our vote and subsequent votes that are coming up that have to do with our local government.
McCain talks so much of a spending freeze BUT he continues to talk about "buying up these bad loans". He continually talks about "reaching across the aisle" BUT he's reached across to vote on some of the worst bills to come up that are AGAINST early child education, AGAINST tax cuts for the poor, AGAINST oversight on Medicaid spending, AGAINST a woman's right to change, AGAINST civil liberties for gays in America, AGAINST new energy alternatives.
McCain continually says that he knows how to fix our problems; he knows how to win wars; he knows how to keep people in their homes. Do you believe him? He's been in the Senate for over 20 years and we've seen him vote AGAINST these things again and again.
What's the real deal?
What got me about that, and I mentioned it to my friend, is that McCain is still in this race; he may be our next President. If we don't know what he is planning to do, then we can't make an informed decision on our vote and subsequent votes that are coming up that have to do with our local government.
McCain talks so much of a spending freeze BUT he continues to talk about "buying up these bad loans". He continually talks about "reaching across the aisle" BUT he's reached across to vote on some of the worst bills to come up that are AGAINST early child education, AGAINST tax cuts for the poor, AGAINST oversight on Medicaid spending, AGAINST a woman's right to change, AGAINST civil liberties for gays in America, AGAINST new energy alternatives.
McCain continually says that he knows how to fix our problems; he knows how to win wars; he knows how to keep people in their homes. Do you believe him? He's been in the Senate for over 20 years and we've seen him vote AGAINST these things again and again.
What's the real deal?
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
McCain has too many skeletons to throw stones
Smoke and Mirrors: The Sequel - 2 Peas in a Pod...
So, in an act of FINAL DESPERATION, the McCain Campaign, with no plan and no solutions, unleashes a swift-boat-like smear campaign. The thing is they have miscalculated this time. By trying to scare people about Barak Obama by LYING about his association with Bill Ayers, they have opened up their own can of worms. This is just one.
Take a good look at this man with John McCain:
Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Phil Gramm.
If you don't already know who he is, Phil Gramm is the Texas Senator who is likely more responsible for this present financial crisis than any other single politician. And, he is co-chair of McCain's Campaign. You may recall that in response to the mortgage crisis, Gramm referred US as a "nation of whiners", but this is really not his biggest problem...
You see, in 2000 senator Gramm started the foundation for our present economic crisis when he slipped a provision into a spending bill called the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act". This was the beginning of the very deregulation that allowed credit default swaps. This provision also deregulated the energy trading market. These acts of deregulation are what allowed this crisis to start in the first place. They were put in so corporations could make more money at the expense of the public and resulted in irresponsible loans and futures trading on oil. The trading on the basis of speculation rather than on profit has artificially raised the price of oil well beyond the effects of supply and demand.
As the markets continue to fall after an irresponsible bail out package was approved, you can thank Phil Gramm. And remember, he is one of John McCain's friends, adviser and confident. This is not a loose association; This is a long and intimate relationship that continues to this very day..
So, if McCain wants to to pronounce guilt by association, he really needs to look in the mirror first, if he can possibly see through all the smoke his campaign is blowing as it goes up in flames.....
Andrew
P.S. If you want some more info about this, read this recent FORBES. COM ARTICLE.
So, in an act of FINAL DESPERATION, the McCain Campaign, with no plan and no solutions, unleashes a swift-boat-like smear campaign. The thing is they have miscalculated this time. By trying to scare people about Barak Obama by LYING about his association with Bill Ayers, they have opened up their own can of worms. This is just one.
Take a good look at this man with John McCain:
Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Phil Gramm.
If you don't already know who he is, Phil Gramm is the Texas Senator who is likely more responsible for this present financial crisis than any other single politician. And, he is co-chair of McCain's Campaign. You may recall that in response to the mortgage crisis, Gramm referred US as a "nation of whiners", but this is really not his biggest problem...
You see, in 2000 senator Gramm started the foundation for our present economic crisis when he slipped a provision into a spending bill called the "Commodity Futures Modernization Act". This was the beginning of the very deregulation that allowed credit default swaps. This provision also deregulated the energy trading market. These acts of deregulation are what allowed this crisis to start in the first place. They were put in so corporations could make more money at the expense of the public and resulted in irresponsible loans and futures trading on oil. The trading on the basis of speculation rather than on profit has artificially raised the price of oil well beyond the effects of supply and demand.
As the markets continue to fall after an irresponsible bail out package was approved, you can thank Phil Gramm. And remember, he is one of John McCain's friends, adviser and confident. This is not a loose association; This is a long and intimate relationship that continues to this very day..
So, if McCain wants to to pronounce guilt by association, he really needs to look in the mirror first, if he can possibly see through all the smoke his campaign is blowing as it goes up in flames.....
Andrew
P.S. If you want some more info about this, read this recent FORBES. COM ARTICLE.
Monday, October 6, 2008
Christian Attack Dog?
I am increasingly upset at the tactics used in a Presidential contest. Aren't you? I mean, people who are tearing each other down, lying on each other, making up facts, stretching the truth, and consistently leaving out little details that are very important to someone's statement. All of this, in order to sway the thinking and the support of the voting public.
What ever happened to a fair fight? What ever happened to honesty, valour, and respect? How can the American people decide to put ANYONE into office who has assassinated another American's character all in the name of a good fight?
The more I get involved, read, look at sites like www.factcheck.org, and listen to the candidates; the more sick to my stomach I become. No wonder people tune out politics and the 'system'. No wonder people think, "my vote doesn't count" and "they'll do what they want to do anyway". It's easier to turn a deaf ear than to put up with all the hate-mongering, scare tactics, and false information being spewed by our major political parties.
Listen, I respect Barack Obama for trying to run a campaign based on the issues, but he is not blameless in all of this either. He has shaded the truth about people's record just as much as the next guy. But I have noticed that he has not tried to assassinate the character of his rivals or to question their patriotism or even to paint them as crazy ideological nutcases. I still respect him for that. I respect him for trying to bring some sense of honor to the position of President in this country. We've lost that somewhere.
How can a child look up to someone who has done everything 'negative' in their power to attain the highest office in America...and succeeded? What kind of message is that sending out to our young people? Win by any means necessary? Is that really what we want to be teaching the future teachers, organizers, business leaders, and even religious leaders of our country?
NO!!! I say NO!!!
What ever happened to a fair fight? What ever happened to honesty, valour, and respect? How can the American people decide to put ANYONE into office who has assassinated another American's character all in the name of a good fight?
The more I get involved, read, look at sites like www.factcheck.org, and listen to the candidates; the more sick to my stomach I become. No wonder people tune out politics and the 'system'. No wonder people think, "my vote doesn't count" and "they'll do what they want to do anyway". It's easier to turn a deaf ear than to put up with all the hate-mongering, scare tactics, and false information being spewed by our major political parties.
Listen, I respect Barack Obama for trying to run a campaign based on the issues, but he is not blameless in all of this either. He has shaded the truth about people's record just as much as the next guy. But I have noticed that he has not tried to assassinate the character of his rivals or to question their patriotism or even to paint them as crazy ideological nutcases. I still respect him for that. I respect him for trying to bring some sense of honor to the position of President in this country. We've lost that somewhere.
How can a child look up to someone who has done everything 'negative' in their power to attain the highest office in America...and succeeded? What kind of message is that sending out to our young people? Win by any means necessary? Is that really what we want to be teaching the future teachers, organizers, business leaders, and even religious leaders of our country?
NO!!! I say NO!!!
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Top 5 Reasons You Won't Be Able To Vote
Top 5 Reasons You Won't Be Able To Vote
By Allison Fine, 10/03/2008 - 11:28am
Related links:
Voter Registration is Already Closed?
CountMore - Strategic Battleground Voting for Students
I've Got the New York State Voter Registration Blues
Top 5 Reasons You Won't Be Allowed to Vote
Enormous efforts have been made by campaigns and public interest groups to register people to vote on November 4th. According to the Election Assistance Commission more than 2 million poll workers will be working at over 200,000 polling places this election. Unfortunately, what these new voters don’t know is that just registering to vote may not ensure that they are able to vote on Election Day or that their vote will be counted. Here are the top 5 ways that voters will be disenfranchised before and on Election Day.
1. Twenty-seven states close their voter registration the first week of October; another 12 will follow shortly thereafter. Too many states continue to cut off registration just as most people are beginning to tune into the election. Election Day Registration (EDR) in nine states (Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina) has demonstrated that it is an efficient and problem-free way for 10-12% more citizens to participate on Election Day.
2. The Social Security Administration is shutting down its database, the one needed to verify registrations for people without state-issued IDS for three days in mid-October. This “routine maintenance” putting in jeopardy the ability of forty-one, slow moving states to verify millions of new registrants in time for Election Day for voters without state-issued IDs. (Here is a letter sent by the National Association of Secretaries of State asking the SSAS to move the maintenance until after November.) Millions of people may have properly filled out their registration forms but not make it onto the roles if this maintenance continues as scheduled.
3. Voter Purge, a report released from the Brennan Center for Justice this week reveals that, “election officials across the country are routinely striking millions of voters from the rolls through a process that is shrouded in secrecy, prone to error, and vulnerable to manipulation.” Millions of names will be struck from voter registration roles in advance of the November 4th election – and your name is struck in error you won’t know until you show up at the polls – and it’s too late to change it.
4. As I have written before, the new machines are no better than the old machines which were much worse than hand ballots. During the primary season, municipalities were testing optical scan machines, and many failed. Others have been furiously buying new machines that won't be tested before November 4th. The new machines are no better than the old machines which were much worse than hand ballots. How many times will we hear on election night that votes have been cast and lost or just plain lost? Moreover, how many elections are we going to keep hearing this?
5. You remember those pictures form 2004 and 2006 of voters waiting for hours to cast their ballots – up to 12 hours in some cases in the rain and cold. Our voting system is a mechanical engineer's nightmare. The biggest bottleneck in the process of voting is checking in to ensure that voters are registered to vote – this is a human interaction that is slow and tedious. It’s the same reason that the lines at Starbucks are so long. I spoke to a person in the registrar’s office in Fairfax County, VA who told me that they had increased the number of recruited poll workers from 2,600 in 2004 to 3,100 this year, with more to come by the deadline on Monday. Monday coincides with the voter registration deadline in Virginia which has already seen an almost 6% increase in voter registration statement from January –September 15th. But here’s the real problem: There is no way to know until Election Day if they will a) show up, b) been adequately trained for the job and c) are enough of them to account for the expected surge in voting in critical voting areas like Cuyahoga County, OH, Palm Beach County, FL.
So register to vote -- and then cross your fingers that you your vote will be cast and counted on Election Day - in some states your chances aren't so good.
By Allison Fine, 10/03/2008 - 11:28am
Related links:
Voter Registration is Already Closed?
CountMore - Strategic Battleground Voting for Students
I've Got the New York State Voter Registration Blues
Top 5 Reasons You Won't Be Allowed to Vote
Enormous efforts have been made by campaigns and public interest groups to register people to vote on November 4th. According to the Election Assistance Commission more than 2 million poll workers will be working at over 200,000 polling places this election. Unfortunately, what these new voters don’t know is that just registering to vote may not ensure that they are able to vote on Election Day or that their vote will be counted. Here are the top 5 ways that voters will be disenfranchised before and on Election Day.
1. Twenty-seven states close their voter registration the first week of October; another 12 will follow shortly thereafter. Too many states continue to cut off registration just as most people are beginning to tune into the election. Election Day Registration (EDR) in nine states (Maine, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Iowa, North Carolina) has demonstrated that it is an efficient and problem-free way for 10-12% more citizens to participate on Election Day.
2. The Social Security Administration is shutting down its database, the one needed to verify registrations for people without state-issued IDS for three days in mid-October. This “routine maintenance” putting in jeopardy the ability of forty-one, slow moving states to verify millions of new registrants in time for Election Day for voters without state-issued IDs. (Here is a letter sent by the National Association of Secretaries of State asking the SSAS to move the maintenance until after November.) Millions of people may have properly filled out their registration forms but not make it onto the roles if this maintenance continues as scheduled.
3. Voter Purge, a report released from the Brennan Center for Justice this week reveals that, “election officials across the country are routinely striking millions of voters from the rolls through a process that is shrouded in secrecy, prone to error, and vulnerable to manipulation.” Millions of names will be struck from voter registration roles in advance of the November 4th election – and your name is struck in error you won’t know until you show up at the polls – and it’s too late to change it.
4. As I have written before, the new machines are no better than the old machines which were much worse than hand ballots. During the primary season, municipalities were testing optical scan machines, and many failed. Others have been furiously buying new machines that won't be tested before November 4th. The new machines are no better than the old machines which were much worse than hand ballots. How many times will we hear on election night that votes have been cast and lost or just plain lost? Moreover, how many elections are we going to keep hearing this?
5. You remember those pictures form 2004 and 2006 of voters waiting for hours to cast their ballots – up to 12 hours in some cases in the rain and cold. Our voting system is a mechanical engineer's nightmare. The biggest bottleneck in the process of voting is checking in to ensure that voters are registered to vote – this is a human interaction that is slow and tedious. It’s the same reason that the lines at Starbucks are so long. I spoke to a person in the registrar’s office in Fairfax County, VA who told me that they had increased the number of recruited poll workers from 2,600 in 2004 to 3,100 this year, with more to come by the deadline on Monday. Monday coincides with the voter registration deadline in Virginia which has already seen an almost 6% increase in voter registration statement from January –September 15th. But here’s the real problem: There is no way to know until Election Day if they will a) show up, b) been adequately trained for the job and c) are enough of them to account for the expected surge in voting in critical voting areas like Cuyahoga County, OH, Palm Beach County, FL.
So register to vote -- and then cross your fingers that you your vote will be cast and counted on Election Day - in some states your chances aren't so good.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
I called my House Representatives
Wow, I was nervous for some reason, but I just called his office in DC and actually voiced my opinion to a 'person'. LOL. I don't know what I thought; maybe I was going to be on an answering service or something?
I simply said that I'd like to voice my opinion and urged him to vote against this bailout package until they had researched other options. "I don't believe that we would push through a 700 billion dollar package without reviewing all the options."
It was only about 2 minutes but I'm glad I did it. Will it do anything? Who knows... but I thank Barack Obama for inspiring me to get involved and thus feel empowered. Robert Anton
I simply said that I'd like to voice my opinion and urged him to vote against this bailout package until they had researched other options. "I don't believe that we would push through a 700 billion dollar package without reviewing all the options."
It was only about 2 minutes but I'm glad I did it. Will it do anything? Who knows... but I thank Barack Obama for inspiring me to get involved and thus feel empowered. Robert Anton
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